Britain’s
decision to place Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which has been
spearheading an armed struggle to win a separate homeland for minority Tamils
in northeastern part of Sri Lanka, on its list of “terrorist groups” has given
a new twist to the on-going peace process in the country that has already seen
some dramatic changes in the last few months. This new phase of peace process
was kicked off in November last year when the LTTE leader, Velupillai
Prabhakaran, made an unanticipated offer to initiate “unconditional talks” with
Colombo to find a solution to this chronic ethnic grapple that had engulfed
some 70,000 Sri Lankans. Within a few days, the LTTE amended this offer by
adding an appendage of a precondition that it would not enter Norwegian-backed
peace talks until the government declares a ceasefire. Shortly after this, in
order to give a touch of sincerity to this “now-conditional” talks offer, the
LTTE announced a unilateral one-month ceasefire on the eve of the Christmas
(which has now been extended up to March 24). On the other hand, President
Chandrika Kumaratunga seems to be working on a multi-pronged strategy and
Britain’s decision to label the LTTE as a “terrorist” organization is an
illustration of her new strategy of guns-and-table to trap the LTTE.
In
the early phase of her career, Kumaratunga appeared to be a rather “soft” lady,
who had an understanding of the root cause of the Tamil problem and wanted to
tackle the problem through the negotiations and direct talks with the LTTE
leadership. But at that time, the LTTE tried to take undue advantage of the
softness in the tone of the Chandrika government by escalating its guerilla
activities. Though she also gradually started to listen to her generals who
were quite anxious to launch a massive offensive against the Tamil Tigers, but
it was not until she lost an eye in the LTTE-sponsored suicide bombing two ears
back that Ms. Chandrika made a major change in her strategy on this issue. Now
she has adopted a new strategy of guns-and-table with emphasis on first putting
too much military and psychological pressure on the LTTE before initiating a
dialogue with them. And so far this strategy of blowing hot and cold has proved
to be fairly successful. The Sri Lankan
army has put up a good show in snubbing the LTTE guerilla activities in the
recent months.
It
is perhaps the continuous military successes of the government forces that
eventually compelled the LTTE leadership to cooperate with the Norwegian
special envoy, Erik Solheim (who has been trying to broker a peace deal there),
and offer unconditional ceasefire. To achieve her objectives of entering into a
dialogue with LTTE leadership
whom
she could dictate her own term of peace, Ms. Chandrika has been working in three directions. Firstly, she has allocated
generous defense budget to bolster the on-going military operation against the
LTTE, which has yielded favorable results for her. Secondly, in order to entice
the Tamil minority, she has been trying to bring about some drastic
constitutional changes that will turn the country into a federation where the
Tamil minority will have its share in the power structure. Although her
previous attempt to get the parliamentary approval for her devolution plan in
August was aborted because of her ill-prepared campaign and stiff resistance
from the influential Buddhist clergy and hard-line Sinhalese nationalists, but
she has still kept her plan alive despite heading a fragile coalition
government. Through her devolution plan, she hopes to make inroads into the
vote bank of the LTTE. Thirdly, she has embarked upon a campaign to isolate the
LTTE in the international community. So far, her government has been quite
successful in projecting the LTTE as a terrorist group. The latest inclusion of
the LTTE in the UK list of terrorist organizations is being seen as a big
diplomatic victory for the Chandrika government, which had been pressurizing
the British government to do so.
Britain’s
decision to include the LTTE in the list of terrorist groups will serve two
objectives of the Chandrika government. One, it will weaken the international
network of the LTTE that is being centrally operated from the UK. It will
affect the LTTE activities both administratively and financially, as the UK law
will also stop the fun-raising projects of the group – thus, a big setback to
the LTTE’s international operation. Two, the British move will further isolate
the LTTE, which has already been outlawed in the United States. There is every
likelihood that more European countries may follow suit, putting more
psychological pressure on the LTTE leadership to enter into a peace dialogue
with Colombo with a weakened face. Interestingly, prior to the imposition of
the ban, the LTTE leadership had threatened to pull out the peace process if
they were named as terrorist by the British government. But, after the release
of the British list of terrorist groups, the LTTE did not repeat the earlier
threats and vowed to go ahead with the peace process – a clear indication of
the LTTE’s dwindling position.
So, things are moving in the right direction for Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga. But she is not expected to initiate any direct talks with Velupillai Prabhakaran, the charismatic leader of the LTTE, in the near future. She will opt for a further delay in direct dialogue with the LTTE leadership in a hope to augment the psychological pressure to the point of exhaustion and desperation. However, she will try to engage the LTTE through the Norwegian peace envoy, Erik Solheim, who has been shuttling between Oslo and Colombo for quite some time, and may even sign a memorandum of understanding being proposed by the Norwegian government to pave the way for a broad-spectrum of dialogue between the two sides. The proposed memorandum of understanding includes resumption of supply of some essential and non-essential items to Tigers-held areas in the northeastern region of the island, halting of political killings sponsored by the Tigers, and release of government soldiers from captivity of the LTTE. Indubitably, these will serve as confidence-building measures before the two sides sit across the table for a durable peace in this Indian Ocean Island. Now when her strategy is working well, President Chandrika must be a little relaxed, but she will have to be extra careful and realistic when the peace process enters into the crucial phase in the coming days.
Editor’s
Note: Dr. Imran Khalid writes regularly
for South Asia Times. He lives in Karachi, Pakistan.