Pakistan Faces an Unprecedented Water Crisis

By Khalid Latif

ISLAMABAD -- Confronting crisis after crisis mostly created by men over the last fifty plus years right since her birth in 1947, Pakistan is now facing an unprecedented water crisis caused by nature. With no rain in the winter and less snow on the mountains, agriculture sector better known as the backbone of the country’s economy is not only collapsing but also creating a disharmony among various provinces. Especially Punjab and Sindh are bitterly vying over water sharing from Indus River. Pakistan's wheat crop, which was surplus last year, is expected to be less than what is required to feed nation’s 140 million.

President Rafiq Tarar, commenting on the inept handling of water resources, said that had there been proper water management, the drought-like situation prevailing in the country, could have been averted. He said Pakistan, which had the potential to produce 40,000 Mega Watt Hydel power, was only utilizing 12 per cent of the potential. Due to paucity of water in the country, the annual wheat production target for this year has already been revised downward by 5 million tons -- from 22 million tons to 17 million tons. Economists fear that Pakistan’s wheat might be less than the federal government’s estimate of 17 million tons, which is a minimum requirement for feeding its ever-burgeoning population and also the beleaguered Afghan refugees.

The wheat crop was severely damaged due to 40 percent shortage of water as the water level in mighty Indus dropped to an all-time low, and the country’s two main water reserviors-Tarbella Dam (Indus} and Mangla, Jehulm, touched their dead levels.Three cash crops -- cotton, rice and sugarcane -- are expected to be much below the previous years, due to estimated 60 percent less availability of water. “The country is heading toward a dangerous situation as these crops play a key role in the national economy, especially cotton. Besides, Pakistan is one of the major exporters of rice," Zafar Altaf, an official of Pakistan’s Agriculture Ministry said.

Officials are hinting that after the receipt of latest estimates of four major crops -- wheat, cotton, rice and sugarcane -- the target for economic growth for the current fiscal year might be revised downward for the third time. The military government had originally set the target of economic growth at five percent. It was revised downward twice – first to 4.5 percent, and then at 3.8 percent. Economists keeping a watch on economic trends say that the rate at which estimates of major crops were being revised, the economic growth may be as low 3 percent. The industrial production, barring a booming textile industry is more or less sluggish. The sugar, cement and construction industries are operating at about 50 percent their capacity. There is critical shortage of sugarcane and the demand for cement has declined sharply due to absence of any major construction activity.

Commerce Minister Razzak Dawood has been quoted by the press as saying that industrial recession will continue for two years. This winter Pakistan had no rain at all, first time in 50 years. At the end of March, one moderate rain alleviated the situation to some extent. Kharif season that normally begins in April but this year farmers will have to wait for two months to get full share of water for sowing purpose. As the water is becoming scarce with every passing day, Punjab and Sindh are bitterly vying for more shares in water. The two provinces took inflexible positions on the distribution of water among them as per the water accord. The controversy regarding the distribution of Indus Basin rivers water between the Punjab and Sindh dates back to 1921 when development and extension of the irrigation network was contemplated in the Punjab.

In order to resolve the controversy, the then British government of India appointed various commissions and committees from time to time and their recommendations were implemented to distribute the available river supplies. The Anderson Committee formed in 1935 determined shares of each canal system with regard to the available supplies. These recommendations were accepted by the government and implemented till 1947.After the creation of Pakistan, India stopped water to Pakistani canals emanating from rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. The sources of these canals were located in India and this led to a serious water dispute between the two countries. The problem was resolved in 1960 through the World Bank and both countries signed the Indus Waters Treaty, giving exclusive water rights of the three eastern rivers -- Ravi, Beas and Sutlej -- to India and those of the three western rivers -- Indus, Jhelum and Chenab -- to Pakistan.

As per the treaty, Pakistan constructed storage reservoirs at Chashma on the Indus and Mangla on the Jhelum, and six new headworks and seven large inter-river link channels by 1970. Tarbela on the Indus was completed in 1975-76. The federal government distributed the available water supplies between the two provinces on an ad hoc basis for each crop season from 1971 to 1991. But since this arrangement disallowed extension of the irrigation network to new areas and construction of new projects, the Water Apportionment Accord was signed in 1991. The IRSA (Indus River System Authority) was established in 1993 to regulate and distribute water among provinces under the accord. But this too has not helped in resolving the dispute between Sindh and the Punjab because the former is demanding share as per the formula in the accord and the latter on the basis of the historical usages, especially when there is an overall 40 per cent water shortage in the country this year.

Punjab contends that since the government has deferred the construction of Kalabagh Dam for another three years and till the construction of alternate reservoirs, water should be distributed as per the historical usages of the provinces to save farming in the Punjab.Officials in the Punjab irrigation department say the formula given in the accord can be implemented only after increasing the water resources at the committed level. And to do so, it required more dams. On interference of Chief Executive Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Punjab budged from its position and offered more water to Sindh for the next Kharif season. The matter has not ended there. Sindh has objected to the storage of water in Mangla to be used for the kharif season. In its last meeting on April 12, Indus River System Authority has decided to carry out a study for settling the dispute between Sindh and Punjab over the question of storing water in Mangla reservoir.

Farmers in Sindh and Punjab are holding protest rallies, alleging that they were not given their share of water. They are threatening the military government that if they were not given more water, they would boycott the local bodies elections. They are also demanding waiver in the payment of land revenue. Low water level in Indus has also threatened the survival of blind dolphins, a unique mammal found only in the Indus.Wildlife experts fear that if the water level in the river does not improve soon, it might affect the breeding pattern of the dolphin. Besides, the low water had also intensified threats to the life of the dolphins.

The Sindh government has declared the Indus River between Sukkur and Guddu barrages as Dolphin Reserve where the netting and fishing of the dolphins was banned under the law. Hussain Bakhsh Bhagat, Sindh’s Wildlife Deputy Conservator and in charge of the Dolphin Reserve said that water shortage would certainly be affecting the dolphins. He said the level of pollution in the river would also be higher than the normal condition because the same amount of effluents would be entering the comparatively little quantity of water. He said due to the fund constraints a study to evaluate the damage to the dolphins due to water shortage could not be carried out. The wildlife sources said the fishermen living along the river had also increased their fishing activities, affecting the food supply of the dolphins and thus their normal growth. Less water has also exposed the blind dolphins to the predators -- like human beings or animals. Due to the extensive fishing activities, the number of dolphins entangling in the fishing nets must also have increased.