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June  2000

CONTENTS 

ECONOMIC NEWS  

       

 

  

 


Editor
Syed Badiuzzaman
  
Consultant
LaRue W. Gilleland
  
Arts & Literature Editor
     Sajed Kamal     
  
Community News Editor
   Nazli Siddiqui   
  
Correspondents
Nazmul Ashraf
(Dhaka)
   
Manju Biswas
(Newark)
  
Omar Faruk
(Toronto)
  
Poonam Kaushish
(New Delhi)
  
Fahim Reza Nur
(New York)
  
Nanda Wanasundera
(Colombo)
  
Bhagirath Yogi
(Kathmandu)
  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Drought Takes a Heavy Toll on India’s Economy

“Mama, what’s the big deal about water? Just give them Pepsi instead!”

 
       By Poonam Kaushish

     

NEW DELHI -- “Mama, what’s the big deal about water? Just give them Pepsi instead.” A reaction of a 12-year-old urban school student to the drought sweeping the country, and words that reflect the tragedy and brutality of present-day India. Even though Indians always boast of their great ancient rivers and plentiful waters -- yet throats of many remain parched until death finally brings an end to their agony.

Official statistics put the number of drought-affected districts in the country at over 960 in 12 states. Worst hit among them are Rajasthan and Gujrat. Twenty-six of the 32 districts of Rajasthan alone comprising 23,406 villages are taking a direct hit from the drought. The loss of crop ranges from 75 to 100 per cent. The total population affected in these districts is 261 lakh while that of livestock 345 lakh. In Gujrat, 250 lakh people and 71.33 lakh livestock are affected in 9,421 villages. Bringing things to such a pass that in the Rajkot district of Gujrat state, Korean multinational Samsung is enticing people with a daily supply of 5 litres of water (1.25 gallon) per day for 45 days to buy a TV!

In Madhya Pradesh, 26 lakh people, 32.4 lakh cattle and 9.53 lakh hectare are affected in 3,240 villages. The people have started migrating to the neighboring states abandoning their animals.  Cows are being left behind with a propitiatory tilak on their foreheads, seeking forgiveness for abandonment. Their carcasses are littered all over.

Indeed, what’s the big deal? Millions of words have been written on drought and water scarcity and millions more will continue to be written. But it’s like water off a duck’s back. Everyone goes through the stereotype motions—drought, famine and relief are words, which are freely bandied about. Appropriate noises are made, and hollow concerns for instant remedies expressed at a time of crisis only to be dismissed later as a post-crisis bad dream. The Government rushes additional supplies of food grains, costing the exchequer Rs. 425 million; the railways runs "water" trains, enough to satisfy people’s conscience that they have done their part for the nation.

As the water crisis stares the country in the face, there is no gain saying that the Indian state has failed. But it’s a systematic failure over several decades. In the last 50 years, there has been no proper planning to mitigate natural catastrophes. And ever since the green revolution, our policies have got more skewed. The failure of the state is essentially the failure of the development paradigm it has adopted. Over the last ten years, governments in New Delhi and state capitals have slashed spending in areas that deserve more money. A survey of 25 states show a steady drop in funding allocated for irrigation, soil conservation and water management. For example in 1997-98, states spent 7.41 per cent on irrigation and a measly 0.4 per cent on soil conservation and water management while the expenditures had fallen to 6.18 and 0.38 per cent respectively by 1999-2000.

Tragically, India continues to be dependent on the goddess of rain. Good monsoon means abundant water and a bad one—drought.  Of the 4,000 b cubic meters of rain – 75 per cent falls during the 70 to 90-day monsoon. Only 1000 b cubic meters falls during the remaining the nine months. Moreover, the rainfall varies from a low of 0.50 to 55 mm to a high 12,000-13,000 mm. Also, our land and water resources are stretched beyond limits due to burgeoning population. India’s land mass of 329m hectare accounts for only 2 per cent of the globe’s land area, while its population is 16 per cent. Thus, the land’s carrying capacity has been exhausted.

Besides there is not a single river a city has escaped decay from; the huge waste from urban gutters, chemical and industrial effluents and filth has turned them into slow streams of dense poison. For instance, the Yamuna near Delhi is classified as "dead" for a stretch of around 32 Km around Delhi. It contains dangerous level of pesticides and industrial toxic waste. And its water table falls by 0.15 meters every year. Under the Ganga action plan, Rs. 3 billion have been spent for cleaning the river but it yet remains a feted channel infested with faecal coliform bacteria. According to Fisheries Research Institute, there may be no rivers left in a few decades. Plus two-thirds of the country’s fresh water is lost every year due to evaporation and run off to the sea. Water was found to have high concentration of flouride in 17 states. Studies conducted in 1996 and 1997 found arsenic contamination in groundwater in eight districts of West Bengal affecting 30 million people.

Unfortunately, politicians have not hesitated to muddy the waters. The result is that large areas, which once had abundant supply of water, now reel under water shortage, as funds available for investment have dried up. But in the backdrop of 67 per cent of the population still depending on rain, groundwater continues to be lifted indiscriminately resulting in a sharp drop to 3 to 5 per cent every year in the water levels(from 20-30 ft. to 300-400 ft.). Already in Gujrat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar the water level has plummeted. Unsustainable exploitation of ground water has depleted underground aquifers (layer of rock or soil that holds or transmits water) in many districts of Punjab and Haryana. In Mehsana (Gujrat) and Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu), the aquifers can’t be recharged.

The groundwater level in the dustbowl of Barmer, Sirohi and Jalore, Rajasthan has gone down from about 20ft. two years ago to about 125ft. now.  Most surface water sources have dried up. It is estimated that on an average about 300 square meters are being bulldozed daily. In some areas, all the three levels of soil stand exhausted. Sad indeed for a country that boasts of deepest soil absorption in the world; the Gangetic plain where fertile soil can be found at 16000ft.

Pertinently, nothing has been done to explore and harness the groundwater in the northeast, which is better endowed and has over 12,000 mm of rainfall. Minor irrigation projects, which would prove successful, have been given a go by. Politicians are interested in only major and medium irrigation works. The focus on large, expensive projects ensures that local problems are not given the attention they deserve. This leads to regional disparities, as irrigation can be assured to only 33 per cent of India’s agriculture. As it stands, the Government has spent over Rs. 90,000 crore since 1951 on these projects. One of the reasons for the failure of the government to solve the problem of recurring drought is that the money is spent, though astronomical in figure, for the "dig and fill-up" type. There was no attempt to link the grants to the creation of permanent assets, which could take care of the people during their crisis.

It is feared that India along with 29 other countries will face severe water crisis by the year 2025. As compared to the world’s per capita availability of 8,500 cubic meters of water, India stands at a meagre 2,200 cubic meters. A 1997 Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI) report says that per capita water availability will drop to 1600 cubic meters in 2017 compared to 6000 cubic meters in 1947. In certain areas of Tamil Nadu, it is already down to 400 cubic meters. Thus, the decision of policy makers to promote tubewells and big dams depleted the local ground water supply often the only source of drinking water in rural India. A United Nations study (1998) says that two-thirds of humanity will suffer from moderate to severe water shortage within the next 30 years. Since 90 per cent of water is used for agriculture, you can expect successive crops failure and food scarcity. Every year the target is set to double food production but it has failed for the last three years. In reality, India has taken more than 30 years to increase the production to 210mt. now from 105mt.in 1968.

Sadly, little has been done since the British days to use rain water. Facilities which existed during the time of the erstwhile princely states of India are lying unused, like the one in Amer fort in Jaipur, Rajasthan which has a capacity to store 3 million litres of rainwater. Ironically, Cherapunji, in Meghalaya which has the highest rainfall in the world faces acute water shortage for at least nine months in a year. It is undeniable that a large part of the problem can be solved by harnessing simple rain harvesting technologies which are optimally managed at the level of local government.

In addition to this, most of the green cover has been removed and taken for crop cultivation. Little attention is paid to per hectare yield. In scarce areas, commercial food grains, (water guzzling crops) are given favorable treatment in terms of support price structure. This has led to low cultivation of coarse grain production, which require hardly any water. But they have no monetary gains.

A serious problem is that these disasters abruptly terminate normal sources of income for the people, as the value of their already negligible assets of livestock and land, drops down sharply for distress sales. This deprivation makes the food-for-work programs expensive and difficult. Severe costs are inflicted on the beneficiaries such as commuting to work, foregoing alternate uses of their time and having to labor for long hours in the hot sun, at a time when they are already overstressed. Besides only half the relief money can be used to cover wage costs, the rest for material and equipment. Needless to say that the drought will certainly leave an adverse impact on the Indian economy which will last for at least a couple of years. An acute shortage of fodder availability will result in mass deaths of livestock, and eventually reduction in cattle wealth of the people.  The purchasing power of the poor would see a sharp downslide. This reduced purchasing power would have an effect on the overall demand for the manufacturing goods and the service sector.

The availability of food grains will reduce and distribution will be affected with acute shortages in pockets. The drought will lead to a decline in rural savings and in turn take its toll on the national savings and investments. The government will have to cut back on revenue spending, and water management will have to be decentralized to the community level. Clearly, India is heading for a slow down in the national economy with an increased unemployment problem.

 

 

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